Business agency August 31 news entered in August, by the US debt rating downgrade, the deterioration of the European debt crisis and a series of systemic risks, the international commodity prices fell sharply, the market is a sad. However, we believe that despite the dismalness of the bulk commodity receipts in August, we do not rule out the possibility of a rebound in the September market and a phased boost in commodity prices.
First, the earlier decline was due to the fact that overseas factors dominated market sentiment, pessimism over economic growth prospects and panic in capital markets became drivers of systemic risk. With the evolution of events, especially after the devaluation of U.S. debt, the fact that U.S. Treasury yields did not rise and fell, greatly pacified market sentiment. The data shows that as of August 25th, the yield of US Treasury bonds continued to decline, and the yields of 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year Treasury bonds fell to 0.22%, 0.98%, and 2.23%, respectively, showing investors' interest in US Treasuries. Demand is still strong. According to the latest data from JPMorgan Chase Securities, the ratio of U.S. debt at current neutral positions is 85%, indicating that investors did not expect large-scale sell-off after U.S. debt downgrade, nearly 85% of investors Maintained a position consistent with the established benchmark. The currency anchor status of the US dollar and the risk-relief function of US Treasuries have not been affected by the downgrade of U.S. debt. The panic sentiment of the previous period has been eliminated to some extent.
Second, a series of newly released data also confirms that the economic growth has not been destroyed. It is true that from the economic data of various countries, the global economy that experienced the financial crisis in 2008 did not expect a rapid recovery from the mid-range, but we do not think that the economy has entered a “recessionâ€, at least in terms of data, it does not support the recession. The saying. As the largest economy, the U.S. currently has no “deterioration†in terms of consumption, real estate, or employment data. Although the monthly data may fluctuate, it does not affect the “moderate recovery†of the U.S. economy. In the second quarter of 2011, the annual growth rate of the US GDP was 1.0% (revised), and the final value of the consumer confidence index in August was 55.7 points.
As for Europe, the European debt issue is temporarily innocent. The two major European economies, Germany and France, have not achieved the expected GDP data, but from the trend point of view, regardless of the year-on-year or year-on-year ratio of GDP, the worst period since 2008 has passed. Even if the data is repeated, the trend of recovery still remains. No change; in addition, employment and industrial production data do not support the argument for economic recession.
Third, QE3 is expected to heat up. Despite Bernanke’s lack of a clear response to QE3 at the annual meeting of the central bank, he said that the FOMC will review the relaxation of monetary policy options in September and extend the September FOMC meeting to two days. This undoubtedly gives the market unlimited imagination. Because precisely at the annual meeting of the global central bank last year, Bernanke set the stage for the Fed’s second round of quantitative easing (QE2) and launched QE2 two months later. This may be Bernanke’s move this year. "Different work". In fact, face-to-face QE3 has been quietly carried out, such as the Federal Reserve announced recently that it will maintain a low benchmark interest rate before 2013, bonds reinvested at maturity to maintain the scale of the balance sheet.
Fourth, there is a need for a rebound in the technical recovery of the market after a sharp sell-off. From August 1 to August 10, international crude oil prices fell by nearly 20% in less than 10 trading days, LME copper fell by about 12%, and Shanghai Copper** fell by 16%. Such a sharp sell-off has been rare since 2008. As mentioned earlier, with the easing of market sentiment, the technical rebound has become increasingly demanding. In recent trading days, the rebound of LME copper as a representative example seems to confirm this point.
Therefore, from the above four perspectives, the late commodity prices are expected to boost. However, we should soberly realize that in the long run, the slow recovery of the economic recovery and the inconvenient European debt crisis will bring great uncertainties to the future market pattern. The staged rebounds jointly promoted by the above four factors are not sustainable in terms of time. It is recommended that investors pay attention to short-term risks since late September.
First, the earlier decline was due to the fact that overseas factors dominated market sentiment, pessimism over economic growth prospects and panic in capital markets became drivers of systemic risk. With the evolution of events, especially after the devaluation of U.S. debt, the fact that U.S. Treasury yields did not rise and fell, greatly pacified market sentiment. The data shows that as of August 25th, the yield of US Treasury bonds continued to decline, and the yields of 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year Treasury bonds fell to 0.22%, 0.98%, and 2.23%, respectively, showing investors' interest in US Treasuries. Demand is still strong. According to the latest data from JPMorgan Chase Securities, the ratio of U.S. debt at current neutral positions is 85%, indicating that investors did not expect large-scale sell-off after U.S. debt downgrade, nearly 85% of investors Maintained a position consistent with the established benchmark. The currency anchor status of the US dollar and the risk-relief function of US Treasuries have not been affected by the downgrade of U.S. debt. The panic sentiment of the previous period has been eliminated to some extent.
Second, a series of newly released data also confirms that the economic growth has not been destroyed. It is true that from the economic data of various countries, the global economy that experienced the financial crisis in 2008 did not expect a rapid recovery from the mid-range, but we do not think that the economy has entered a “recessionâ€, at least in terms of data, it does not support the recession. The saying. As the largest economy, the U.S. currently has no “deterioration†in terms of consumption, real estate, or employment data. Although the monthly data may fluctuate, it does not affect the “moderate recovery†of the U.S. economy. In the second quarter of 2011, the annual growth rate of the US GDP was 1.0% (revised), and the final value of the consumer confidence index in August was 55.7 points.
As for Europe, the European debt issue is temporarily innocent. The two major European economies, Germany and France, have not achieved the expected GDP data, but from the trend point of view, regardless of the year-on-year or year-on-year ratio of GDP, the worst period since 2008 has passed. Even if the data is repeated, the trend of recovery still remains. No change; in addition, employment and industrial production data do not support the argument for economic recession.
Third, QE3 is expected to heat up. Despite Bernanke’s lack of a clear response to QE3 at the annual meeting of the central bank, he said that the FOMC will review the relaxation of monetary policy options in September and extend the September FOMC meeting to two days. This undoubtedly gives the market unlimited imagination. Because precisely at the annual meeting of the global central bank last year, Bernanke set the stage for the Fed’s second round of quantitative easing (QE2) and launched QE2 two months later. This may be Bernanke’s move this year. "Different work". In fact, face-to-face QE3 has been quietly carried out, such as the Federal Reserve announced recently that it will maintain a low benchmark interest rate before 2013, bonds reinvested at maturity to maintain the scale of the balance sheet.
Fourth, there is a need for a rebound in the technical recovery of the market after a sharp sell-off. From August 1 to August 10, international crude oil prices fell by nearly 20% in less than 10 trading days, LME copper fell by about 12%, and Shanghai Copper** fell by 16%. Such a sharp sell-off has been rare since 2008. As mentioned earlier, with the easing of market sentiment, the technical rebound has become increasingly demanding. In recent trading days, the rebound of LME copper as a representative example seems to confirm this point.
Therefore, from the above four perspectives, the late commodity prices are expected to boost. However, we should soberly realize that in the long run, the slow recovery of the economic recovery and the inconvenient European debt crisis will bring great uncertainties to the future market pattern. The staged rebounds jointly promoted by the above four factors are not sustainable in terms of time. It is recommended that investors pay attention to short-term risks since late September.
Feiyi Cosmetic Trading Co., Ltd. , http://www.stfycosmetic.com