International Energy Network News: The international oil price has recently drastically dipped, pushing China's refined oil pricing mechanism once again to the cusp of the market.
The current price of refined oil products in China (cracking the oil price dilemma) is based on the average change rate of international oil prices in 22 working days and 4% of the three countries. But is there no problem with this mechanism itself?
First, the current pricing mechanism is insensitive to short-term changes in international oil prices. At present, the international oil price fluctuates greatly. The rate of 4% is easily met, but 22 days is not easy. Therefore, even if the international oil price has fallen sharply recently, it will take a few days.
Second, we imported crude oil not from North America but from the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. At present, the prices of crude oil in these three places have not fallen as much as New York crude oil prices, and most of us are usually seeing New York crude oil.
Lastly, the regulatory mechanism that questioned the domestic refined oil price is “faster and slower†and may also be related to the overall trend of international oil prices after the refined oil price mechanism reform. Since the reform of the refined oil price mechanism in 2009, the international oil price has risen from 40 US dollars per barrel to 100 US dollars now, and it will indeed see more ups and downs.
Domestic consumers are understandably hopeful for this price cut. The latest domestic product price cut was June 1, 2010. After that, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been raised four times in a row, and they have reached the highest level in history. Domestic consumers are also understandably dissatisfied with prices. Because according to the current situation, China's current market oil prices will exceed other countries, because their oil prices can quickly follow the sharp decline in international crude oil prices and a rapid and substantial reduction.
According to some oil and gas consulting agencies, as the international oil price drops sharply again, the rate of change in crude oil in the three places will continue to increase. It is expected that it will reach -4% in early September, when domestic oil prices can be lowered. Of course, this is assuming that the international oil price will continue to fall or remain basically unchanged, so it can only be said that it may be lowered. What is more worrying is that if international oil prices go up, then the expected reduction will be emptied.
This is a good time to reform the refined oil pricing mechanism. You can consider shortening the number of days to 10 working days, reducing the amplitude to 2% or 3% and making it an automatic adjustment process. This basically guarantees a small price adjustment every 10 working days. If the government thinks that the sharp rise in oil prices will make consumers uncomfortable, they can reduce the consumption tax on oil prices (currently 2 yuan in gasoline prices is a tax), or impose a cap on oil prices.
Due to energy characteristics, it is impossible for China to stay away from energy. If we can follow the price mechanism, and the enterprises can adjust themselves independently and supervise the government, it is basically a price-based market. The developed countries also do so in many aspects of the energy price adjustment mechanism, such as the fuel adjustment mechanism. If the government stipulates a range of scope, and independent adjustments by enterprises, it is also a crucial step toward market-oriented reforms.
All kinds of signs show that the era of stable international oil prices may be gone forever. In the future, we are more likely to face frequent and drastic fluctuations in oil prices. The days of refined oil price mechanism will be shortened and narrowed, which is to make the refined oil price mechanism It is more sensitive to short-term fluctuations in oil prices and more adaptable to the basic principles of the international situation. In theory, if it is adjusted once a day and the price adjustment is in place, it is basically market pricing. Therefore, to shorten the price adjustment interval and move closer to the market is the direction of reform of the refined oil pricing mechanism. If we can basically adjust the price by a small amount every 10 working days and adjust the price several times, the public should be able to get used to the price adjustment.
The reduction in the number of days and the reduction in the number of days are not only in line with the trend of international oil prices in the future, but also the direction of China's oil product market reform, and it can also reduce the speculative problems under government pricing. Shortening days and reducing the number of days can increase the difficulty of speculation, increase hoarding costs and reduce speculative profits. Under normal circumstances, shortening the price adjustment period can reduce the price adjustment rate and also reduce speculation. In fact, if the day is changed, there is only general speculation that can be done. It cannot be arbitrarily risk-free.
There are several issues that need to be considered, such as the automatic adjustment process of companies under the scope of government regulations. Judging from experience, the government's approval of price adjustments is often more cautious, and shortening the number of days will make it difficult to operate. On the other hand, energy subsidies in developing countries are reasonable, but market-oriented reforms under high oil prices are very important for subsidy design. In addition to the need to focus on fairness and efficiency, it is also necessary to consider the financial situation in the country. Inadequate subsidies will lead to failure of the reform. Therefore, the subsidy design needs to be considered when setting the upper limit on oil prices.
In short, a reasonable and transparent pricing mechanism is very important, it is the key to win consumers' understanding and it is a performance for consumers to participate in pricing. No matter how it is priced, it is inseparable from strengthening the financial integrity and energy efficiency of energy companies.
The current price of refined oil products in China (cracking the oil price dilemma) is based on the average change rate of international oil prices in 22 working days and 4% of the three countries. But is there no problem with this mechanism itself?
First, the current pricing mechanism is insensitive to short-term changes in international oil prices. At present, the international oil price fluctuates greatly. The rate of 4% is easily met, but 22 days is not easy. Therefore, even if the international oil price has fallen sharply recently, it will take a few days.
Second, we imported crude oil not from North America but from the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. At present, the prices of crude oil in these three places have not fallen as much as New York crude oil prices, and most of us are usually seeing New York crude oil.
Lastly, the regulatory mechanism that questioned the domestic refined oil price is “faster and slower†and may also be related to the overall trend of international oil prices after the refined oil price mechanism reform. Since the reform of the refined oil price mechanism in 2009, the international oil price has risen from 40 US dollars per barrel to 100 US dollars now, and it will indeed see more ups and downs.
Domestic consumers are understandably hopeful for this price cut. The latest domestic product price cut was June 1, 2010. After that, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been raised four times in a row, and they have reached the highest level in history. Domestic consumers are also understandably dissatisfied with prices. Because according to the current situation, China's current market oil prices will exceed other countries, because their oil prices can quickly follow the sharp decline in international crude oil prices and a rapid and substantial reduction.
According to some oil and gas consulting agencies, as the international oil price drops sharply again, the rate of change in crude oil in the three places will continue to increase. It is expected that it will reach -4% in early September, when domestic oil prices can be lowered. Of course, this is assuming that the international oil price will continue to fall or remain basically unchanged, so it can only be said that it may be lowered. What is more worrying is that if international oil prices go up, then the expected reduction will be emptied.
This is a good time to reform the refined oil pricing mechanism. You can consider shortening the number of days to 10 working days, reducing the amplitude to 2% or 3% and making it an automatic adjustment process. This basically guarantees a small price adjustment every 10 working days. If the government thinks that the sharp rise in oil prices will make consumers uncomfortable, they can reduce the consumption tax on oil prices (currently 2 yuan in gasoline prices is a tax), or impose a cap on oil prices.
Due to energy characteristics, it is impossible for China to stay away from energy. If we can follow the price mechanism, and the enterprises can adjust themselves independently and supervise the government, it is basically a price-based market. The developed countries also do so in many aspects of the energy price adjustment mechanism, such as the fuel adjustment mechanism. If the government stipulates a range of scope, and independent adjustments by enterprises, it is also a crucial step toward market-oriented reforms.
All kinds of signs show that the era of stable international oil prices may be gone forever. In the future, we are more likely to face frequent and drastic fluctuations in oil prices. The days of refined oil price mechanism will be shortened and narrowed, which is to make the refined oil price mechanism It is more sensitive to short-term fluctuations in oil prices and more adaptable to the basic principles of the international situation. In theory, if it is adjusted once a day and the price adjustment is in place, it is basically market pricing. Therefore, to shorten the price adjustment interval and move closer to the market is the direction of reform of the refined oil pricing mechanism. If we can basically adjust the price by a small amount every 10 working days and adjust the price several times, the public should be able to get used to the price adjustment.
The reduction in the number of days and the reduction in the number of days are not only in line with the trend of international oil prices in the future, but also the direction of China's oil product market reform, and it can also reduce the speculative problems under government pricing. Shortening days and reducing the number of days can increase the difficulty of speculation, increase hoarding costs and reduce speculative profits. Under normal circumstances, shortening the price adjustment period can reduce the price adjustment rate and also reduce speculation. In fact, if the day is changed, there is only general speculation that can be done. It cannot be arbitrarily risk-free.
There are several issues that need to be considered, such as the automatic adjustment process of companies under the scope of government regulations. Judging from experience, the government's approval of price adjustments is often more cautious, and shortening the number of days will make it difficult to operate. On the other hand, energy subsidies in developing countries are reasonable, but market-oriented reforms under high oil prices are very important for subsidy design. In addition to the need to focus on fairness and efficiency, it is also necessary to consider the financial situation in the country. Inadequate subsidies will lead to failure of the reform. Therefore, the subsidy design needs to be considered when setting the upper limit on oil prices.
In short, a reasonable and transparent pricing mechanism is very important, it is the key to win consumers' understanding and it is a performance for consumers to participate in pricing. No matter how it is priced, it is inseparable from strengthening the financial integrity and energy efficiency of energy companies.
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