"China's foreign trade exports may continue to decline in the near future." Wei Jianguo, secretary general of the China International Economic Exchange Center and former vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce, predicted.
Wei Jianguo pointed out that the trend of China's foreign trade throughout the year is likely to show a basic pattern of inertia and then slowly stabilized and recoverable at the end of the year.
He stressed that this is precisely the best time for China to increase exports, expand the foreign trade market, diversify the market, and adjust the export structure. At the same time, it is also a good time for enterprises to go global, especially to developing countries.
He also suggested that the state could consider further strengthening export policy support. For example, in order to support local exports, it may be considered to bear the 7.5% export tax rebate that is borne by the local government. For some export transactions with good reputation and long-term cooperation, export credit can provide some support, including extension of payment, export credit insurance for export enterprises, and buyer credit and importers to overcome difficulties.
Wei Jianguo pre-judgized that after the recovery of China's economy, the fastest is the recovery of foreign trade, because foreign trade is "the prophet of the spring river plumbing duck", and must be prepared in advance in this regard. In response to this point of view, he made in-depth exchanges with relevant people.
The best time for export diversification
Q: There is a view that the negative growth of trade this year is very likely, and it is worried that the economic recession in emerging markets will have a second impact on Chinese exports. What do you think about this problem?
Wei Jianguo: At present, it seems that several major economies such as Europe, the United States and Japan are in a downturn. Recently, China’s foreign trade import and export may continue to decline.
But I don't think it will be so pessimistic throughout the year. This year's foreign trade exports will likely show a trend of “first low, slowly stabilized, and year-end recoveryâ€. It’s like a sick person, and a stable condition is a good sign. Although this requires a process, I am confident about it.
As for the impact of the emerging market, I don’t think it will be great, because emerging markets still have a need for our traditional goods, and it has a small share.
At this stage, stable exports have stabilized our market and laid a solid foundation for our future exports and for a comprehensive economic recovery. Stabilizing exports is also stabilizing current employment.
What I want to emphasize is that under such circumstances, it is precisely the best period for us to increase exports, expand the foreign trade market, diversify the market, and achieve export restructuring. At the same time, it is also the way for enterprises to go global, especially to developing countries. good time.
Q: How do you understand what you mean by "the best period"?
Wei Jianguo: For the foreign trade of these countries in Europe, America and Japan, we must keep the market and cannot withdraw, because it is more difficult once the market exits and then enters. One of the keys to market diversification is to promote the development of emerging markets including Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, Latin America and Southeast Asia in the export direction.
The development of import and export for these emerging markets can partly compensate for the foreign trade gap caused by the sluggish Europe and the United States. At the same time, it has also nurtured new markets to prepare for the economic recovery.
Q: Under the global financial crisis, how easy is it to keep the market in Western countries such as Europe, America and Japan?
Wei Jianguo: In this respect, it is very important that we pay attention to the adjustment of the export structure and increase the research on the "potato effect" and "lipstick effect" in Western countries.
Although the export of machinery and electromechanical products is weak, the export of daily consumer goods including shoes, socks, shirts, ties, bags and so on is still growing, and the growth rate is not low. At present, Europe, the United States and developing countries do not produce such products, which is our advantage. It is necessary for us to strengthen our exports in this respect, expand our market share, and make the loss of daily-use goods for mechanical and electrical products, and we must not lose market influence in this regard.
This actually reflects a rule that when the economy is more difficult, consumers tend to buy some daily consumer goods, such as soap, eggs, milk powder, etc., in order to save money. Most of them are bargains, and the demand for high-end consumer goods is relatively Shrinking, this is the so-called "potato effect."
At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen the so-called "lipstick effect" research in some emerging areas of leisure and entertainment products, including makeup, travel, games, cartoon movies.
Another significant change in the structure of export products is the significant increase in exports of energy- and environmentally-friendly products. The export of bicycles, especially electric bicycles, has increased dramatically. Electric bicycles exported 540,000 vehicles in the first two months, an increase of 118% over the same period last year. This year may exceed 1 million. This product is currently in great demand in the world, and it is also a product of independent intellectual property rights that our country independently innovates.
I estimate that in the next few years, the export of our electric bicycles may reach seven or eight million vehicles per year, and strive to reach the level of 10 million vehicles per year.
"Spring River Plumbing Duck Prophet"
Q: Why is it a good time for companies to go global, especially to developing countries?
Wei Jianguo: There are two meanings for enterprises to go global. One is to go to developing countries and the other to developed countries. At this stage, it is very important to go out to the developing countries.
For example, we found that African countries are hot and dry, still need electric fans, and need washing machines. We can go to the local investment and set up factories to combine the export-oriented economy with import and export while expanding domestic demand. In fact, many companies have done this, and the effect is very good.
From the current point of view, we should integrate the strength of our industry, resources and technology, set up a platform abroad, and give the government a more preferential policy. At the same time, we will establish some intermediaries and provide services to reduce worries when our company goes out. When developing abroad, use some local raw materials to produce products suitable for local needs.
While further cultivating the market, we must transfer the technology and train local employees. The combination of the near future and the long-term will surely be welcomed by the local community. Nowadays, the more countries are in an economic crisis, the more they hope to transfer these technologies from our country to stimulate their economy. So this is a win-win result.
Q: What policy changes can stabilize the export situation and promote enterprises to go further?
Wei Jianguo: I personally think that we can further strengthen our export policy. In order to support local exports, we must strive to pay the local tax rebate of 7.5% of the local burden.
It is very likely that this period will be more difficult for the central government, but this will greatly support the localities, will mobilize local enthusiasm, and increase efforts to promote exports. The situation will be very different.
At the same time, for some export transactions with good reputation and long-term cooperation, export credit can provide some support, including extension of payment, export credit insurance for export enterprises, and buyer credit to importers and importers.
Because he still has export vitality, but the order has been reduced. If there is credit support, it can maintain the current production, stabilize the entire team of technicians, and stabilize the employment. We can find another market. This is the key.
Q: The global financial crisis has not yet bottomed out, and the Chinese economy may have to face greater challenges in the future. What do you think about the relationship between China's foreign trade and the future economic recovery in China? What advice do you have for business and decision makers?
Wei Jianguo: My prediction is that the recovery of China's economy in the future will be the recovery of foreign trade at the fastest. Of course, it may not be very strong, but this piece is the "Spring River Plumbing Duck Prophet". We must prepare in advance in this regard.
In the short term, it is very clear that a good foreign trade enterprise must be able to survive, and it must be able to stand up. Once the winter has recovered, he has his client channel and his market. Once the company has no other people, even if there is capital, it is difficult. Connected.
The enterprise is not very good, but we will increase our support, do higher quality goods, transform and upgrade, and continue to grow and develop after the market recovers. Enterprises can't be "cat winter", they should be alert at any time, attack at any time, develop new products, open up new markets, stabilize the present, and look to the future.
What is more important? It is to take advantage of our country to introduce foreign technology and management and increase the high-tech content of our products. Even if it is a lighter, its power, energy consumption, energy saving, environmental protection and other content need to be developed slowly.
In this financial crisis, China can not only get through, but also be the first to come out. More importantly, our products will have advanced technology and products with new faces. It is not urgent for the present, and it is necessary to combine short-term, medium-term and long-term.
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