According to data released by CLSA on March 2, China’s February macroeconomic leading indicator, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), rose for the third consecutive month, indicating that China’s manufacturing industry is slowly recovering from a trough and the economy is taking the lead. The likelihood of recovery is increasing further, but it is still weak.
According to the survey data, China's PMI in February was 45.1, a sharp rise from 42.2 in the previous month. In November 2008, the index hit an all-time low of 40.9.
"The PMI has steadily increased in the past few months, because the government's infrastructure construction started most of the Spring Festival, which has a greater role in promoting the heavy industry. The original high-priced inventory is also gradually digested. The production is also showing an increasing trend," said Nie Wen, a macroeconomic analyst at Warburg Trust.
In the sub-indices, the February new orders index rebounded sharply from 46.1 in November to 44.2, and November 2008 was the lowest in history of 36.1; the purchasing inventory index also contained a continuous decline since October 2008, from 1 40.2 of the month rose to 42.8.
The new export orders index rose to 39.5 in February, compared with 36.3 in January and the lowest in history in November 2008. The new orders index rose to 44.2 in February from 39.9 in January; the employment index rose from a record low of 45.0 in January. 46.6, breaking the decline momentum for 9 consecutive months.
One of the important effects of the growth of new export orders in February is that the layoffs have peaked, said Rothman, China's macro strategist at CLSA. He said that although the unemployment rate will continue to rise, the largest wave of layoffs has passed.
Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council revealed in exchanges with netizens that some important economic indicators indicate that China's economy has begun to improve. In mid-February, China's power generation increased by 15% from the same period of the previous year, an increase of 13.2% from the first half of February.
Despite this, analysts believe that the Chinese economy is still optimistic. Lyon said that although the PMI continued to rise, it was still below the watershed of 50.0, which judged the expansion/contraction of manufacturing. “Manufacturing activity is still contracting, but only slightly milder than at the end of 2008. Although the credit data improved in January, the impact on domestic manufacturing orders has been slight so far, and the PMI new order index has rebounded, mainly in terms of export orders. "Fei Siwei, head of economic research at CLSA, said.
Nie Wen agrees with this statement. He believes that the current promotion of the economy is mainly due to the government. Private investment is still in a wait-and-see state due to the uncertainty of the financial crisis and external demand. "Now the economy is gradually completing the bottoming, and it is necessary to further observe whether it can recover. After all, the external economy is not optimistic. The more optimistic view is that if the economy finishes bottoming in the first half of the year, it will begin to recover in the second half of the year."
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