How long does "acclimatization" help Chinese PV?

A recent article, “Polysilicon Import Volume and Price Doubled the Suppression of Domestic Enterprises Resurrecting the Dilemma of Predicament,” stated that “from March to March in 2015, the domestic polysilicon price fell all the way, from 139,000 yuan/ton in early March to 12 thousand at the end of April. Yuan/ton... Polysilicon companies were forced to lower their prices to maintain their cash flow, lest they would once again fall into the predicament of a complete shutdown at the end of 2012 and would have difficulty resuming production.” Lao Hung could not help but think: No, it urgently needs industrial integration. It should not be photovoltaics. Upstream of the industry, that is polysilicon production, but it should be the middle reaches, that is, from the ingot to the component production.

The conclusion of simple thinking is that the upstream competition is fierce because there is competition from abroad. The competition in the middle reaches is not fierce because there is no competition from overseas and the downstream power station construction market is also the same.

The conclusion of in-depth thinking is that the current level of competition in the upstream technology is outstanding. In this stage, overseas companies have a strong competitive advantage and have occupied 50% of the space for China's silicon material demand market for several consecutive years. It seems that there is still an upward trend; The old and new equipment and labor cost competition, through the integration of industries started in 2012, overseas companies can not be defeated. Currently, they can only stick to the “double reverse”; overseas companies in the downstream market have a strong business model and strong leading edge in financial instruments. The perfect Chinese PV industry environment has formed a thick layer of protection for domestic companies, making it impossible for overseas companies to temporarily appreciate the fact that they are “satisfied with the environment.” For example, Firstsolar's high profile in the Chinese market in 2011 entered a low-key exit in 2013.

In the complete market environment, the market is hard-practiced. The current and downstream links in China's PV industry currently have less competition from overseas companies and do not mean that there will be less in the future. There is no overseas enterprise competition, nor does it mean that overseas companies do not have ideas. I believe this kind of competition is in the near future. The middle reaches will focus on the technical aspects and the downstream will focus on the business model supported by financial capital. The last time, the stir-fried apple invested in China's photovoltaic power plant project, surprised people in photovoltaics and discovered that Sunpower, a well-known photovoltaic company in the United States, has already sneaked into China's power plant construction market, not only focusing on the high conversion rate of Sunpower products, but also the green capital represented by Apple. significance.

Looking at the future eco-environment of China's photovoltaic industry, for a period of time, there will be both internal competition and external competition. Ultimately, it must be an integration of superior resources in accordance with market rules in the context of global market integration. After more than ten years of hard work, China's photovoltaic industry has already walked in front of the world. As an advanced productive force, it may have more initiative to take the lead in the world. Therefore, China's photovoltaic industry authorities should set more stringent market rules and more explicit export-oriented policy guidance, prompting photovoltaic companies to accelerate their internal integration and take the initiative to face external competition and even go out to compete.

In this competition, the advantages and disadvantages of China's PV are:

The competitive advantage of China's photovoltaic industry is that it has the most advanced equipment and the most competitive labor force in the process of processing. If it can speed up marketization and internationalization, this competitive advantage should be transformed into stronger competitiveness, even without People can compete with the enemy's competitiveness; in the domestic power plant construction link, it is a strong state support and “soil and water” to protect Chinese companies.

The competitive disadvantage of China's photovoltaic industry is: the disadvantage of marketization. When Chinese PV companies are still competing with internal companies, overseas PV companies are already competing with traditional energy sources; the disadvantages of the business model, when Chinese PV companies are still keen to " When the “Road” resources were snatched, photovoltaic companies with leading business models abroad were expelling companies that lacked such advantages; the disadvantages of financial instruments were that Chinese PV companies were still willing to assume high costs but could not find scale. At that time, overseas PV companies have already lowered their already low ** cost through innovative financial instruments such as Yieldco. In particular, with the liberalization of China’s capital account, Chinese PV companies will be in an environment of unfair cost competition.

These disadvantages are realistic and cruel, and the current prosperity of China's photovoltaic industry is built on the protection of water and soil. This kind of protection will not last long and will not be conducive to the long-term development of China's photovoltaic industry. In particular, when overseas companies are interested in the Chinese market. Not long ago ABB, the global leader of inverters, had a major change. Its senior vice president said: As a global leader, ABB must succeed globally and must first be successful in China. This is not an option for ABB. of.