On August 3rd, China and Europe reached a "price agreement" on photovoltaic (PV) products. Starting from August 6th, most Chinese PV companies no longer have to pay an anti-dumping tax of up to 47.6%, which allows them to retain market access in certain foreign countries under specific conditions. This development has reinvigorated the domestic market for Chinese PV companies, encouraging greater investment and growth within the country. At the same time, the government has introduced a series of supportive policies aimed at boosting the industry.
Wang Sicheng, a researcher at the National Energy Research Institute under the National Development and Reform Commission, stated that before 2020, an average annual installation capacity of 10–15 GW is achievable. Last year’s market size was between 100 and 150 billion yuan, and with such a large market showing promising potential, the outlook is positive. According to media reports, the National Energy Administration is planning long-term strategies for the PV industry, aiming for cumulative installed capacity to reach 35 GW by 2015 and 100 GW by 2020. By 2050, the industry is expected to see even greater growth, with an average annual installation of 30 GW. At that point, excess production capacity is expected to naturally diminish, as domestic demand will be sufficient to absorb supply.
According to Wang Sicheng's estimates, the national subsidies for photovoltaic power generation over the next decade are expected to be around 20 billion yuan annually, totaling 200 billion yuan in total. This significant subsidy pool is expected to attract investors and boost competition in the domestic PV market. However, whether private and state-owned enterprises receive equal support and policy benefits will directly impact the enthusiasm and competitiveness of private sector participation.
In an interview, Shen Hongwen, a researcher at China Investment Advisors, pointed out that private enterprises and state-owned enterprises face significant disparities in capital, technology, management, talent, credit, and background. As a result, it is difficult for them to compete on equal terms. While relevant policies may help the entire industry grow, the question of whether civilian capital will face discrimination remains a concern.
The National Energy Administration recently released the Interim Measures for the Administration of Distributed Generation, encouraging enterprises, energy service companies, and individuals to invest in and operate distributed power projects. The measures also provide subsidies for construction or electricity generation, covering solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, and ocean energy sources.
One of the main challenges for distributed generation is grid connection. The new measures require grid companies to offer efficient grid services, including investing in public grid upgrades and providing timely, convenient access for distributed projects. Grid companies must also sign agreements and electricity purchase contracts with project owners. Excess electricity can be sold back to the grid, with net metering or peak-valley pricing considered.
These measures have systematically addressed barriers to distributed generation integration. Major grid operators like State Grid and China Southern Power Grid have also introduced new initiatives. State Grid offers technical support for connecting distributed power sources, while China Southern Power Grid has established green channels for low-voltage connections, streamlining the process for distributed projects.
Financial support for distributed PV is also gaining momentum. Tan Zaixing, Director of the New Energy Assessment Department at the China Development Bank, revealed plans for joint documents with the National Energy Administration to support financial services for distributed PV. These documents are expected to be released early in September.
The policy highlights include supporting individual homeowners to install rooftop PV systems, with the state offering loans ranging from 50,000 to 500,000 yuan. Some regions are already enabling household PV projects to connect to the grid online. Industry experts believe that such financial incentives will significantly boost residential PV adoption.
Shen Hongwen emphasized the importance of detailed implementation rules, independent oversight, and strict enforcement mechanisms to ensure policy effectiveness. He also noted that grid connection and subsidy policies require stable, long-term solutions rather than quick fixes. While the national government should assign responsibility and involve auditors, the actual implementation remains challenging.
Wang Sicheng added that provinces and cities are allowed to provide local subsidies based on their financial situations. However, so far, no region has introduced concrete subsidy policies. Shen Hongwen further pointed out that local governments are struggling with debt crises and banking system liquidity issues, making it difficult to implement PV subsidies effectively. Forcing state-owned enterprises to "save for help" or issuing local bonds is not a sustainable solution, as local governments lack strong incentives to fully support these policies.
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