In 2010, as the pace of world economic recovery accelerated, trade between China and Japan continued to recover, and total trade reached a new high. According to China Customs statistics, the total trade volume between China and Japan in 2010 was US$301.85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30%. China has become Japan's largest trading nation. Mechanical and electrical products occupy an important part in Sino-Japanese trade. In 2010, the import and export volume of Japanese mechanical and electrical products was 177.96 billion US dollars, accounting for nearly 60% (59%) of the total trade volume between China and Japan. In the same period, China exported US$121.06 billion to Japan, of which US$60.05 billion was mechanical and electrical products, up 28.5% year-on-year, accounting for 49.6%; imports from Japan were US$176.71 billion, of which US$117.91 billion was mechanical and electrical products, up 37.6% year-on-year, accounting for up to three. Two points (66.7%); my trade deficit with Japan is 57.86 billion US dollars. Japan is China's largest import source of mechanical and electrical products, and imports from Japan account for about 18% of China's total imports of mechanical and electrical products. In 2010, the top five mechanical and electrical products I imported from Japan were electronic components, automotive products, electrical equipment, mechanical basic parts and lifting and engineering machinery, which accounted for 52.8% of the total imported mechanical and electrical products. The top three categories of imports totaled more than 10 billion US dollars, of which electronic components imports reached 22.55 billion US dollars, accounting for 19% of my daily mechanical and electrical imports. Japan is the fifth largest country market for mechatronics exports. In 2010, my exports to Japan accounted for 6.5% of total mechanical and electrical exports. I mainly exported five categories of products, including automatic data processing equipment, electrical equipment, consumer electronics, household appliances and communication equipment. 50.3%. On March 11, a 9-magnitude earthquake struck Japan, which shocked the world. What impact will China's mechanical and electrical products on Japan trade after the earthquake? What is the long-term trend of China-Japan electromechanical trade? How should electromechanical companies respond in the near future? This article is intended to do a brief analysis. Recently, it faces the negative impact of high-end product supply shortage and price increase. High-tech is an important pillar industry in Japan. In the midst of the industrial transfer tide at the end of the last century, Japan has transferred many technology product manufacturing bases. However, in the fields of high-tech raw materials and electronic components, Japanese companies still master core technologies, such as semiconductors, panels, and sensors. The main high-end core product manufacturing is also kept in Japan. Japanese companies influence the supply of global electronic products through the control of core technologies and raw materials. The northeastern part of the earthquake-stricken area is not Japan's most important industrial area, but it also concentrates on many important industrial factories such as automobiles, nuclear power, petrochemicals, and semiconductors. Its economic scale accounts for 8% of Japan's gross domestic product (GDP). about. Currently, 40% of the world's flash memory chips are supplied by Japan, and the earthquake in Japan will inevitably affect the chip industry, which will have a greater impact on the recent supply chain. The impact of the Japanese earthquake on China's trade with Japan bears the brunt of the high-tech sector represented by chips. For a long time, a large number of electronics manufacturing companies in China have relied heavily on Japan's cutting-edge technology. In the core devices such as chips and microcontrollers, they are mainly supplied by large Japanese electronics companies. In the short term, the hope of relying on independent research and development to replace imports from Japan is very slim. As a major importer of the electronic high-tech industry, especially the chip industry, China faces unfavorable conditions such as significant price fluctuations and short-term supply shortages. Japanese capital is the main supplier of upstream panels and chips in China's color TV industry. After the earthquake, many well-known Japanese companies such as Sony, Toshiba and Matsushita closed their factories, and the situation of supply shortage is inevitable. However, some domestic companies believe that the impact in the short term is small, because a large part of the panels and modules are from South Korea, and the amount of stocks purchased in advance is large. In addition, a large number of high-end bearings, meters, resistors, capacitors and other auto parts required in China are manufactured in Japan, and the unfavorable factors brought about by the earthquake will have certain impact on the automotive industry. The key parts and spare parts of the automobile are ranked second in the Chinese and Japanese mechanical and electrical trade, and the seventh in the export. Therefore, like the electronic information industry, some export auto industries are likely to be affected by the Japanese earthquake. To withstand the unfavorable factors caused by rising prices and shortage of spare parts, the supply of Japanese imported high-end cars in the Chinese market will be affected to some extent. In general, the delay in the assembly of Chinese-funded enterprises due to the obstruction of the import of parts and components and the interruption of technical exchanges, the delay in the completion of technical projects, and the direct and rapid rise in the prices of related products will lead to the continuous increase of electromechanical costs. The main form of performance damage. In addition, the negative impacts of logistics and transportation are unavoidable. The earthquake has caused serious damage to infrastructure in northeastern Japan. Traffic disruption or lag will result in some related finished products being unable to be transported to airports or ports. The departure of shipping, the commuting of employees of disaster-stricken enterprises and the supply of raw materials for factories will undoubtedly be affected. The overall pattern of China-Japan electromechanical trade will not change in the short term. From the perspective of industrial layout, Japanese electromechanical enterprises are mostly distributed in central and eastern Japan, and the main earthquake zone of this earthquake is in northeastern Japan. Important electromechanical companies such as Toshiba, Hitachi, and Mitsubishi are not widely distributed here. Even if there is a shortage of related mechanical and electrical products, it is likely to be a short-term situation. It is necessary to pay special attention to the fact that in recent years, the industrial policies of developed countries represented by Japan have undergone major changes, and some large enterprises with core competitiveness have shifted their productivity to developing areas such as China. Taking the automobile industry as an example, since most Japanese cars (especially Toyota) already have a relatively complete industrial chain and supply chain in China, the Chinese automobile market is rarely affected. Since mainstream Japanese car companies have established joint ventures in China earlier, most of the products sold in the Chinese market are produced in Chinese factories. The heads of Japanese joint venture car companies said that the earthquake in Japan will not have a negative impact on sales in the Chinese market. In fact, most of the Japanese auto parts suppliers in China come from the original Japanese supply system. This is different from the European and American auto companies and the unique industrial chain system determines that the automakers and component suppliers are almost at the same time. The establishment of a joint venture factory in China has also kept the localization rate of Japanese car companies at a high level. Therefore, it is not obvious that the Japanese exchange rate changes and natural disasters are affected. From the long-term situation of China-Japan electromechanical trade, Japan's electromechanical products have core competitiveness in the import and export trade of mechanical and electrical products between China and Japan with its high technology and low energy consumption. Most domestic electromechanical enterprises rely on the import of Japanese electromechanical products. Strong, such as chips, electronic components, injection molding machines, aluminum presses, etc. Even in some manufacturing industries, where the industrial ladder is higher than that of China's South Korea and Taiwan, it is impossible to control Japan's high-end technology in the short term. Therefore, the long-term deficit in Sino-Japanese electromechanical trade is not easy to change, and the basic situation will not be fundamentally affected by the earthquake. On the whole, due to the earthquake impact of the industry, the recent export of Japanese mechanical and electrical products (especially core products such as electronic products and automobiles) will be correspondingly reduced. I am expected to ease the deficit of Japanese mechanical and electrical products. Electromechanical enterprises should circumvent recent risks and seize market opportunities. The crisis is the basic experience in dealing with emergencies. The destructive nature of the earthquake in Japan (customer, channel, market share and loss of infrastructure, etc.) will cause some Japanese electromechanical enterprises to transfer or accelerate the transfer of production capacity. Therefore, relevant enterprises in China should enhance the ability of industrial upgrading in a targeted manner. In recent years, Japan has been taking the road of “industrial transferâ€. Some experts have shown that the Japanese consortium has long established a "geese form", that is, the local enterprises as the wild head, mastering the most upstream products and technologies; followed by South Korea and Taiwan, mainly for Japanese technology; the last is China The role of the "Yanwei" is assembled for "Made in Japan" and is at the bottom of the industrial chain. From this perspective, Japan's electromechanical enterprises can become the "mechanical advantage" of China's related electromechanical enterprises due to the "homeopathic" of disasters. The recent production and operation of electromechanical enterprises that rely on the import of Japanese chips, bearings, electronics and other products can actively transfer product orders and channels to South Korea, Taiwan, Europe and the United States. From the analysis of the current situation of disasters in Japan, the magnitude of the earthquake is very serious, especially with the uncertain factors of the nuclear material explosion in the nuclear power plant. The production capacity of the damaged enterprises in the earthquake will inevitably be repaired in the short term, in some production facilities. In the face of “disastersâ€, the corresponding supply gap is difficult to fill in time. Therefore, it is a wise move for electromechanical enterprises to start emergency plans and tap new supply channels as soon as possible. However, it should also be noted that Japan's electronics industry is still ahead of Taiwan and South Korea in general, and many of the electronic components required by our company will be difficult to transfer to other places in the short term. Undoubtedly, Japan's post-disaster reconstruction, especially infrastructure reconstruction, will generate a large amount of material demand. The estimated cost of post-disaster reconstruction in Japan is close to 10 trillion yen, which is not yet estimated. The spread of nuclear disasters and other secondary disasters. The electromechanical category, which is a large-scale project in the national economy and the people's livelihood, is self-evident in this huge post-disaster reconstruction cake. The dangers of the accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant caused by the earthquake in Japan cannot be accurately estimated for the time being. In the case of widespread uncertainty caused by other secondary disasters caused by the earthquake in Japan, the trade prospects of the relevant electromechanical industry in China and Japan need to be closely related. Pay attention and deal with it as soon as possible.
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