With the financial situation at home and abroad eroding and the economic downturn, the supply and demand relationship of natural rubber has shown ample supply, reduced consumption and investment demand, and caused Hujiao to continue to decline. Although it oscillated around 24,000 to 25,000 yuan per ton in recent days, the decline may continue.
On the supply side, the Natural Rubber Producing Countries Association stated that in 2011 global supply of natural rubber will reach 10 million tons, an increase of 5.6%, which is higher than the previous estimate of 9.96 million tons. Thailand has not been affected by the largest flood in 50 years, and its production is about 3.38 million tons, which is also higher than the previously estimated 3.35 million tons. This year, the main growth points of natural rubber production are Indonesia and Malaysia. The natural rubber production of the two countries accounts for 43% of the global natural rubber production. This year, the price of natural rubber is high, and therefore the enthusiasm of plastic farmers for tapping is high. The output of natural rubber between the two countries has increased by about 10% year-on-year. On the whole, 2011 is a bumper year for natural rubber, with abundant supply throughout the year. The three major rubber-producing countries have announced that they will limit production prices, but then they also feel that there is no need to immediately take measures to intervene in prices, give up production cuts, and interfere with the supply of natural rubber. This poses a severe pressure on natural rubber prices and market sentiment.
In terms of consumer demand, domestic automobile production and sales volume in November increased by 3.41% and 2.42% year-on-year, respectively, despite an increase from the previous quarter. In the first 11 months, the accumulative growth rate of automobile production and sales continued to decline. The growth rate of production was only 2%, which was the lowest in the year. The sales growth rate also fell below 3% for the first time. Domestic tire companies struggled, and their production and sales exports fell sharply. According to statistics from China Rubber Industry Association Tire Branch, the tire production growth of member units from January to October was only 2.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4 percentage points; exports grew by 3.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 15.2 percentage points; average profit margin was less than 3% The loss reached 23%.
Since November, the price of Hujiao has continued the downward trend, and the empty side has taken advantage of the negative factors in the macro market. Many parties believe that the mid-to-long term lows are approaching and bargain-hunting opportunities are gradually coming into being. This has led to a sharpening of the differences between the long and short sides. This began a fierce expansion battle. In part, with the main contract RU1201 approaching the delivery period, the main fund was transferred from the recent contract to the forward contract. RU1205 replaced RU1201 as the main contract, Hujiao’s liquidity was strong, and the positions were also expanded, while short-term There has been a sharp increase and decrease, but the comparison of weak and strong forces has caused a rebound in the price and has fallen back.
In summary, under the background of negative macro conditions, the natural rubber supply-demand relationship has shifted towards the direction of bearishness, causing a mid- to long-term downward trend in the interpretation of Hujiao, which may continue into 2012.
On the supply side, the Natural Rubber Producing Countries Association stated that in 2011 global supply of natural rubber will reach 10 million tons, an increase of 5.6%, which is higher than the previous estimate of 9.96 million tons. Thailand has not been affected by the largest flood in 50 years, and its production is about 3.38 million tons, which is also higher than the previously estimated 3.35 million tons. This year, the main growth points of natural rubber production are Indonesia and Malaysia. The natural rubber production of the two countries accounts for 43% of the global natural rubber production. This year, the price of natural rubber is high, and therefore the enthusiasm of plastic farmers for tapping is high. The output of natural rubber between the two countries has increased by about 10% year-on-year. On the whole, 2011 is a bumper year for natural rubber, with abundant supply throughout the year. The three major rubber-producing countries have announced that they will limit production prices, but then they also feel that there is no need to immediately take measures to intervene in prices, give up production cuts, and interfere with the supply of natural rubber. This poses a severe pressure on natural rubber prices and market sentiment.
In terms of consumer demand, domestic automobile production and sales volume in November increased by 3.41% and 2.42% year-on-year, respectively, despite an increase from the previous quarter. In the first 11 months, the accumulative growth rate of automobile production and sales continued to decline. The growth rate of production was only 2%, which was the lowest in the year. The sales growth rate also fell below 3% for the first time. Domestic tire companies struggled, and their production and sales exports fell sharply. According to statistics from China Rubber Industry Association Tire Branch, the tire production growth of member units from January to October was only 2.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4 percentage points; exports grew by 3.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 15.2 percentage points; average profit margin was less than 3% The loss reached 23%.
Since November, the price of Hujiao has continued the downward trend, and the empty side has taken advantage of the negative factors in the macro market. Many parties believe that the mid-to-long term lows are approaching and bargain-hunting opportunities are gradually coming into being. This has led to a sharpening of the differences between the long and short sides. This began a fierce expansion battle. In part, with the main contract RU1201 approaching the delivery period, the main fund was transferred from the recent contract to the forward contract. RU1205 replaced RU1201 as the main contract, Hujiao’s liquidity was strong, and the positions were also expanded, while short-term There has been a sharp increase and decrease, but the comparison of weak and strong forces has caused a rebound in the price and has fallen back.
In summary, under the background of negative macro conditions, the natural rubber supply-demand relationship has shifted towards the direction of bearishness, causing a mid- to long-term downward trend in the interpretation of Hujiao, which may continue into 2012.
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