Abstract Since the polysilicon price bottomed out in late December last year, polysilicon prices have continued to rise moderately for a month and a half. Some analysts believe that the rebound in polysilicon prices is due to the expectation of the Ministry of Commerce's double-reverse investigation of US, Europe and South Korea polysilicon. As of February 3, according to students...
Since the polysilicon price bottomed out in late December last year, polysilicon prices have continued to rise moderately for a month and a half. Some analysts believe that the rebound in polysilicon prices is due to the expectation of the Ministry of Commerce's double-reverse investigation of US, Europe and South Korea polysilicon. As of February 3, according to business statistics, the domestic producer price of solar grade polysilicon was 123.1 yuan / kg, compared with the low point of about 118 yuan / kg in late December 2012, the cumulative increase of 4.3%. According to the Shenyin Wanguo Research Report, as of February 4, the domestic polysilicon price has reached 125 yuan / kg.
Analysts generally believe that the news that the Ministry of Commerce is about to make a preliminary ruling on the US, Europe and South Korea's polysilicon double-reverse is the main reason for this round of polysilicon price rebound. Recently, some media said that the Ministry of Commerce will announce the preliminary results of the double-reverse investigation on February 20.
Data show that from January to November 2012, China imported a total of 76,000 tons of polysilicon from Germany, the United States and South Korea, accounting for 88.6% of the total imports. The annual consumption of polysilicon in China is estimated to be around 120,000 tons, at most not more than 150,000 tons, and imported polysilicon accounts for half of the market. "After the preliminary results, polysilicon from the United States, South Korea and Europe may be subject to tariffs. Under this expectation, Chinese polysilicon manufacturers continue to raise product prices," said Zeng Duhong, an analyst at Orient Securities.
According to the Shenyin Wanguo Research Report, as of last week, the price of imported polysilicon has reached US$17.6/kg, while Waker, one of the world's major polysilicon producers, has offered US$21/kg.
Some analysts believe that once the double anti-official case, the price of imported polysilicon will rise to 20 US dollars to 24 US dollars / kg (about 127 yuan ~ 150 yuan / kg), most polysilicon enterprises in the mainland are expected to resume production.
Most brokerage analysts are optimistic about the post-poly price trend of polysilicon. Guoxin Securities Zhang Wei said: "Because of the recent domestic polysilicon double-reverse and some downstream enterprises actively reducing production, the whole industry chain products began to appear in supply shortage, coupled with the recent strong domestic and domestic demand, prices are still rising. After the Spring Festival, domestic demand will Opened one after another, the current price has not returned to the state that most companies can resume work, so the price increase will be maintained."
Shenyin Wanguo Zhou Xuhui expects: "The price increase of polysilicon will continue until after the Spring Festival. The reason is that polysilicon is the most thorough link to de-capacity, and the anti-expectation is expected to continue to push up prices."
However, although the price of polysilicon began to pick up, not all polysilicon companies have the opportunity to enjoy the warmth. Due to the deep loss of the quagmire, Zhejiang Xiecheng Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. and Jiangsu Sunshine (600220) subordinate Ningxia Sunshine Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. have already entered the bankruptcy process.
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