Grasping the development trend of photovoltaics

In 2013, China's photovoltaic industry entered a new cycle under the favorable policies. In 2013, the development of China's PV industry is at a critical period, with opportunities and challenges coexisting. In the industry and enterprise development, "do not advance or retreat", how to keep up with the situation, seize the opportunity to achieve industrial upgrading and enterprise transformation?

The 2nd World Photovoltaic Industry Investment Summit (ISIS-2013) will be grandly opened in Shanghai from March 19th to 20th. The summit aims to help China's PV companies understand the status quo and countermeasures of the domestic distributed market, and to understand and interpret the latest policies, regulations, investment environment and precautions of overseas hot emerging markets. And provide more investment and financing information and comprehensive solutions for enterprises and financial investment institutions interested in project cooperation and project investment and financing. Grasping the trend, keeping abreast of the market, innovating and pragmatic, and achieving win-win cooperation, this summit will become the most forward-looking and most powerful photovoltaic industry event in 2013.

Focus on the combination of photovoltaic distribution and urbanization

Li Keqiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, pointed out in mid-December that the country will combine the urbanization construction, adopt measures to encourage the application of solar power generation equipment, and support the integration of distributed power generation to expand the market and promote the photovoltaic industry in China. Continue to develop healthily. In response to the call of the country, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is developing a plan on the theme of “photovoltaic going to the countryside” to promote the large-scale entry of solar photovoltaic power into the rural market and to conform to the future urbanization.

The distributed application of photovoltaics has implemented the direction of new urbanization and environmental protection, so that the building bids farewell to the old-style urbanization development mode of high pollution, high consumption and low efficiency. Photovoltaic is both renewable and distributed, and can be said to be the backbone of the third industrial revolution. According to statistics, the market application scale of photovoltaic urbanization can reach more than one trillion yuan. At this summit, experts at the conference will focus on the topic of combining photovoltaic distribution and urbanization, and propose practical solutions. The urbanization construction will inevitably bring about the great development of the photovoltaic industry. This seems to have a good opportunity to promote the transformation and upgrading of enterprises.

Pay attention to power plant investment and financing and exit mechanism

The term “roller coaster” has been used frequently by the media and practitioners since last year to describe the dramatic shift in the PV market. Only this time, once the hottest darling in the capital market suddenly fell to the bottom, there is no chance to breathe. The global economic downturn and the decline in foreign market demand have caused Chinese PV companies in the desperate to “forced” to move to the domestic market and enter the power station at the end of the industrial chain. The vast domestic application market is like a broad blue sea looking forward to being excavated. The power station business has become the focus of the development of the photovoltaic industry. The financing channel and the power station exit mechanism have become the most considered issues at present.

At present, the practical difficulties of PV companies are the tight capital chain and product backlog. By participating in the construction of downstream photovoltaic power plants, the company resold the power station to obtain profit, trying to re-flow the funds and digest large amounts of inventory. However, due to the fact that the rules and years of subsidies for on-grid tariffs have not been introduced, and the doubts about the quality of power stations, the sales of photovoltaic power plants in China are not mature. The potential power station owners with strong capitals such as insurance and funds are still waiting to see. In addition, access to photovoltaic power plants requires a lot of investment. For private enterprises, this is undoubtedly a huge pressure.

The summit attracted the active participation of the funders, insurance parties and developers, and will provide ideas for the industry on the financing channels of photovoltaic power plants, how to withdraw funds, how to obtain investment income, how to control investment risks, and exit mechanisms. And solutions to provide decision-making basis for the company's strategic planning and market layout.

Focus on power plant asset securitization

The investment and operation of photovoltaic power plants are still new forces in China. The strong and enforceable support policies are indispensable. A complete set of power station business models also needs to be established and clarified. This is a guarantee that gives investors confidence and gives them stable and safe returns.

The securitization of power station assets is one of the important topics of this summit. People in the industry believe that solar photovoltaic power plants have a large investment and long pay period, but the income is relatively fixed. This feature is very suitable for securitization operations. Promote asset securitization of established power stations, and unfunded, especially distributed photovoltaic power plants to carry out financial leasing.

In the past, there was a famous saying on Wall Street in the United States: “If there is a stable cash flow, it will be securitized.” For the current hot PV power plant market, only by making the trading attributes of the PV power plant clear and clear, will it attract more More capital is entering. If the securities of a solar power project are issued, they can be sold as financial products to individuals and businesses to raise funds, but the proceeds from the sale of electricity will certainly flow to investors. In this way, the problem of high investment threshold of power station can be effectively solved. With the improvement of policies and the promotion of the market, the asset securitization of power plants will become the development trend of the photovoltaic industry, and will also promote the mature capitalization and market operation of photovoltaic power plants.

In a townhouse in Shunyi, Beijing, Ruhai is designing its own “solar power station”. The rooftop power station will be connected to the national grid, and the electricity generated will not only be used by the home but also sold to the grid company.

On December 26, 2012, the staff of the State Grid went to his home and installed the first family in Beijing and transmitted the electricity meter online. This means that his power station will become the first home solar power station in Beijing to be integrated into the national grid.

The State Council executive meeting held on December 19th proposed to promote distributed photovoltaic power generation and encourage units, communities and homes to install and use photovoltaic power generation systems. The household power station in the sea is in the category of “distributed”.

Compared with large-scale photovoltaic power plants, distributed photovoltaic equipment is mainly installed on the roof of homes and factories, and it uses itself for self-use, and the excess electricity is uploaded to the grid.

In Europe and America, “distributed” is the mainstream of photovoltaic power generation; in China, more than 70% of PV installed capacity comes from large-scale photovoltaic power plants, and “distributed” equipment only accounts for more than 20%.

Many uncertainties such as grid-connected, on-grid tariffs, and financial subsidies make the “distributed” business prospects a mystery. Is the “distributed” PV market being launched able to save the Chinese PV industry from the fire?

"Power station test" on the roof of the villa

A practitioner, using his own villa to start a distributed photovoltaic power plant test, plans to install thin-film solar cells on the roof, second and third floor windows.

Ruhai, 41 years old, has been in the communications industry for more than a decade. In 2008, he moved into the fast-growing photovoltaic sector and joined a photovoltaic equipment company in Beijing.

In the eyes of the sea, distributed photovoltaic power plants in Europe and the United States have become quite popular, but this is still a new thing in China. The distributed photovoltaics that have not yet been opened are a huge “blue ocean”. He hopes that in the future, he will be able to start a business in the field of photovoltaics, designing and installing photovoltaic power plants for thousands of roofs in China. Before starting a business, his own villa became his "test field."

The villa in the sea has three floors. In his design, in addition to the installation of thin-film solar cells on the roof, the lower half of the windows on the second and third floors will also be made of thin-film solar cells.

In terms of professionalism, this system is called “thin film solar cell BIPV+BAPV photovoltaic project”, and the complete set of equipment is 30,000 yuan. The power of the system is 3 kW, and after construction, it can generate about 10 kWh per day.

The power generation of 10 kWh, even if it is all self-sufficient, cannot meet the demand for electricity of about 20 kWh per day. He still needs to buy from the national grid for the remaining electricity.
As the sea calculates, after the system is put into operation, he can save about 3,000 yuan in electricity costs every year, and it takes about 8 years to recover the cost of 30,000 yuan.

In his view, this "distributed" photovoltaic rooftop power station is more attractive to industrial plants, commercial facilities, and large public buildings. On the one hand, the roof of these buildings is large, and there will be more power generation; on the other hand, the electricity price for industrial and commercial electricity is two to three times higher than that for residential electricity. If the country can subsidize again, the investment return period may be shortened. In four or five years.

New export of excess photovoltaic capacity

If the domestic "distributed" market can be successfully opened, it will undoubtedly become a new export for digesting photovoltaic capacity.

The “distributed” market that has not yet been opened means not only opportunities for entrepreneurs such as the sea, but also a way to digest products for the huge domestic PV production capacity.
According to the statistics of the China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance, China's solar cell module production ranked first in the world for five consecutive years in 2011. The sluggish external demand has become a reality, and how many production capacity is consumed has caused many PV module manufacturers to have a headache.

The large-scale photovoltaic power station in the west has been the darling of many photovoltaic companies. In July 2011, the National Development and Reform Commission released the on-grid price of photovoltaic power generation, which made the large-scale photovoltaic power station in the west a profitable business. In the past year, many state-owned enterprises and private enterprises have successively went to the west to invest in large-scale photovoltaic power stations, setting off a wave of power station construction. Among them, there are many PV companies.

However, according to Southern Weekend, due to the limited electricity demand in the west, the cost of photovoltaic power generation is 2 to 3 times higher than that of thermal power generation, which makes it difficult for some western photovoltaic power plants to operate at full capacity, and even has been repeatedly cut off.

In 2012, in the various documents of the National Energy Administration, “distributed” replaced photovoltaic power plants, which became the focus of policy attention. In terms of formulation, photovoltaic power plants are required to be “orderly advancement”, while “distributed” is “strongly promoted”.

In September, the National Energy Administration issued a notice requesting localities to declare “distributed photovoltaic power generation scale application demonstration zones”. According to media analysis, according to this demonstration area plan, the “distributed” total installed capacity of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) will reach 15 million kilowatts or more.

This figure is 50% more than the target of 10 million kilowatts set by the National Energy Administration's "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Solar Power Development" two months ago. The media believes that this is "the National Energy Administration rescues the market and adds code to the distribution."

Not only that, the State Council executive meeting on December 19 clearly stated that “actively explore the domestic PV application market and focus on promoting distributed photovoltaic power generation” and raise the idea of ​​developing “distributed” to the State Council level.

During the interview, many PV company executives said that if the domestic “distributed” market can be successfully opened, it will undoubtedly become a new export for digesting PV capacity.

Wang Zhixin, head of the publicity department of Yingli Green Energy, a listed company, said that for PV module companies, the difference between the components and supply “distributed” of PV power plants is not large. In Europe, Yingli has a significant portion of its sales, all in the “distributed” market of residents.

In Spain, Yingli has built a “one-stop” demonstration center, which sells various components, cables, inverters, etc., and local residents request, for example, 10 kWh or 15 kWh per day. Yingli’s staff will give a solution and free training for those interested.

"If the domestic market is mature, we do not rule out moving this whole set of sales models to China." Wang Zhixin said.

The grid connection problem has not been completely solved

The person in charge of a photovoltaic company in Guangdong said that it is necessary to cover dozens of formalities with the grid connection to the southern power grid, and they are exhausted.

How to start an undeveloped market? In addition to the benefits of national policies, various obstacles need to be removed. For "distributed", the problem of grid connection is the first to bear the brunt.

Shen Hui, director of the Solar Energy Research Institute of Sun Yat-Sen University, said that as early as 2009, the country launched the "Golden Sun Project". Technically speaking, most of the projects in the "Golden Sun Project" are "distributed". However, since the implementation of the Golden Sun Project for three years, "the biggest obstacle is the grid connection." Nowadays, the country is focusing on “distributed”. If it is still unable to solve the problem of grid connection, this policy is difficult to implement.

"Electricity can't be stored unless you buy a battery. If the power generation system can't be connected to the grid, the electricity that is sent out can only be wasted. Especially the peak period of photovoltaic power generation is during the day, but the family are going out to work. The power is likely to be used up," said Hai.

In his view, only when the grid is connected, the photovoltaic power generation system can be put into trial use. "The grid connection is a prerequisite for the construction of the power station."

According to media analysis, in the traditional power supply system, the power grid buys electricity from the power plant according to the country's prescribed feed-in tariff. After the fare increase, it is sold to the user. The price difference between the purchase and the sell is the main factor of the grid profit. source.

Distributed power generation is self-sufficient for users. Every time a user uses one power, it means that one less electricity is purchased from the grid. Some of the factory roof power stations that have been built in the “Golden Sun Project” are often not independently invested by the factory, but are rented by independent investment in the factory. If these power stations sell electricity directly to the enterprise, it is equivalent to bypassing the power grid. It poses a challenge to the monopoly of the power grid.

In September 2012, the Economic Observer quoted sources familiar with the industry as saying that since the implementation of the Golden Sun Project, “90% or more of the projects have not been connected in the actual sense”.

On the morning of October 26, a press conference held by the State Grid marked the turning point of the grid-connected policy. State Grid announced that it will accept 6 MW (1 MW = 1000 kW) of distributed photovoltaic power generation and grid connection, and promised to facilitate access to such projects, accept, develop access to power grid solutions, and the whole process of grid connection debugging Receive any fees.

This news made the sea happy. As early as 2011, he submitted a grid application to the State Grid, but since the country has no relevant policies, the grid application has not been approved.

On the afternoon of the announcement of the State Grid, Ruhai submitted an online application via email. On November 5th, he went to the State Grid's Shunyi District Power Supply Bureau in Beijing, and formally submitted a grid-connected application for the generation of a 3 kW distributed photovoltaic roof on his roof. "This is the first project of my business. I hope to witness the implementation of the implementation of the new network of the State Grid." Ruhai said.

On December 5, the State Grid officially approved the application for grid connection such as the sea, and obtained the “Access System Report” and the project access confirmation form of the Electric Research Institute. Ruhai said: "From the submission of the application to the approval of a total of 23 working days, three days more than the procedure, it is completely understandable."

However, compared with the new national grid policy, China Southern Power Grid covering Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou and Hainan has no new actions in distributed PV grid-connected. Professor Shen Hui from Sun Yat-sen University said that Guangdong enterprises are waiting for the new policy of China Southern Power Grid. At present, the application of PV grid connection to the grid is still cumbersome and lengthy.

On December 17th, the headline of China Energy News, a subsidiary of the People’s Daily, published an article titled “Southern Network “Photovoltaic and Networking Ideas” Why Not Yet Out”, the article said that the national policy is quite distributed PV, and the State Grid is actively following However, PV companies in the areas covered by China Southern Power Grid seem to be only “envyed”.

The person in charge of a photovoltaic company in Guangdong once complained to the media that they had to close dozens of formalities to the grid of the South China Power Grid. For this reason, they adopted a “person-to-man” tactic and arranged for five people to be tight in four or five months. The heads of the various departments who have been succumbing to the approval have been exhausted.

On-grid price in dispute

The on-grid price of 1 yuan / kWh looks very beautiful, but it is not so easy to get this on-grid price that is more than double the residential electricity price.

If a project wants to be promoted on a large scale, it must have a good business model. For a “distributed” power station, what is the on-grid price that is sold to the grid, and how is the government subsidy taken? These policy issues are not resolved, and the business model cannot be discussed.

After getting the approval of the grid connection, the next goal of the sea is to win a preferential on-grid price. If the electricity can be sold to the grid at a relatively high price, it will inevitably shorten the investment return period of the power station and increase the possibility of commercial promotion.

After negotiating with the national grid, he decided to upload all the electricity generated by the household power station to the grid instead of using it himself. "I calculated this. The residential electricity price is 0.5 yuan / kWh, but the PV on-grid price proposed by the National Development and Reform Commission is 1 yuan / kWh. I sell electricity to the power grid, which is more cost-effective than my own use." Ruhai said.

After his calculation, if the electricity is sold to the grid at a price of 1 yuan per kWh, the investment return period of the home photovoltaic power station will be greatly shortened.

"Only 30,000 yuan for equipment purchase, then the cost can be recovered in 8 years. If the government subsidizes in the future, the life of the home power station may be reduced to 5 or even 4 years." Ruhai said: "This investment The rate of return is commercially promising."

However, at present, the State Grid is only willing to purchase the desulfurized coal on-grid price of 0.4 yuan/kWh instead of the benchmark price of 1 yuan per kWh. In the explanation of the State Grid, to get the feed-in tariff of 1 yuan / kWh, the power station must be approved by the National Development and Reform Commission.

The reporter reviewed the "Notice on Improving the On-grid Electricity Price Policy for Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission in July 2011. There is indeed an approval for the regulation of on-grid tariffs.
If the sea finds that it is approved by the National Development and Reform Commission, it needs a Grade A qualified engineering consulting agency to prepare a project application report. The report of such institutions is about 200,000. In addition, the application also requires approval reports for urban planning, environmental assessment, and land. These reports are all down and may require nearly half a million. An ordinary household distributed power station is obviously unable to bear such a burden.

He suggested that since the national grid allows for distributed grid-connecting of less than 6 MW and is free of access charges, the NDRC may wish to convert the distributed photovoltaic projects below 6 MW from the approval system to the filing system.

The level of on-grid electricity prices is related to the power station investors, whether it is related to the project's profitability. Qian Jing, global brand director of Jinko Energy, a listed photovoltaic company, said that in 2011, it was because the National Development and Reform Commission set a price of 1 yuan/kWh of PV on-grid electricity price, which brought the investment tide of the western photovoltaic power station.

Qian Jing said that the electricity generated by the photovoltaic power plant in the west will be purchased by the grid company at the price of thermal power generation (about 0.4 yuan / kWh), and then subsidized by the National Development and Reform Commission for the on-grid price of photovoltaic power generation (1 yuan / kWh). The difference between the two.

Such a policy has made it possible to invest in western photovoltaic power plants. If the "distributed" feed-in tariff can also refer to the standards of photovoltaic power plants, it will undoubtedly increase the enthusiasm of power plant investment.

Shen Hui said that the photovoltaic power generation facilities in Guangzhou University City are facing the embarrassment of on-grid tariffs. At present, Guangzhou University City has built a 3 megawatt photovoltaic power generation system, which can be used to supply electricity to the university city. When students are on holiday, the electricity is uploaded to the power grid and supplied to the surrounding area. At present, the power grid is uploaded to the grid, and the grid can only be purchased at a price of 0.4 yuan/kWh. Compared with the grid-connected electricity price of 1 yuan/kWh of photovoltaic power plants, the price of “distributed” power generation is obviously too low.

Pathway business model

The State Council has made clear that distributed photovoltaic power generation implements “according to electricity subsidies”, and the industry has begun to explore business models first.

The State Council executive meeting on December 19 proposed to implement a policy of subsidies for electricity for distributed photovoltaic power generation. This model is called the “power subsidy” model. But how to supplement the electricity subsidy? There are no clear policies yet, and people in the industry have their own understanding.

Previously, there were rumors on the Internet that all distributed photovoltaic power generation projects, including spontaneous self-use and surplus power online, can receive subsidies of 0.4-0.6 yuan / kWh, with a subsidy period of 20 years. However, the news was not confirmed by the authorities.

In September 2012, the National Energy Administration issued a notice requesting localities to declare the “Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Scale Application Demonstration Zone”. The reporter was informed that many PV companies, such as Yingli and Jingke Energy, participated in the declaration. I hope to grab the distributed market.

“This time the distributed declaration, we declared the two roofs of Shangrao in Jiangxi and Haining in Zhejiang, which are the roofs of our own factories.” Jing Jing of Jingke Energy said that it is expected that there will be some government subsidies for “distributed”. But the subsidy method may be very different from the "Golden Sun". Regarding whether there will be more investment, Qian Jing said that because "the national policy is not clear, we are still waiting to see."

"The expansion of photovoltaic enterprises to the downstream is definitely a big direction." Qian Jing said that more and more photovoltaic companies are now involved in downstream industries, and even directly invest in photovoltaic power plants. For Jinko Energy, there are four ways to participate in these power stations: one is to supply only components; the other is the project general contract (EPC), which is to contract the entire project including components, inverters, brackets, etc.; The third is joint investment, which becomes the shareholder of the power station; the fourth is independent investment.

On the whole, just supplying components is one of the thinnest ways of profit, and the profit of downstream projects is more secure.

In Guangdong, where PV grid connection has been criticized in the industry, some PV companies have begun to cooperate with China Southern Power Grid to share the benefits of photovoltaic power generation.

On December 28th, a photovoltaic company in Foshan, Guangdong, Aikang Solar and China Southern Power Grid Integrated Energy Co., Ltd. reached a cooperation agreement to jointly build a “130MW Distributed Photovoltaic Power National Demonstration Zone” in Sanshui Industrial Park, Foshan City. According to relevant sources in the local government department, the reason why Aikang cooperates with China Southern Power Grid is that it hopes to have more convenience in connecting to the grid and obtaining subsidies.

After considering it for a few days, Ruhai decided to “gamble”. On December 24, he went to the Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission to apply for project approval for the family power station. If the NDRC approves his application, he will be able to secure a feed-in tariff of $1/kWh.

If he can apply successfully, he is equivalent to a step closer to his entrepreneurial dream. In the imagination of the sea, he wants to become an expert in the “distributed” power station of the villa community and industrial plant in China, providing design and construction services for the whole project. “This is a very large market”.

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