Under the "double anti-" bombing of Europe and the United States, China's photovoltaics finally stumbled through its extraordinary 2013.
Looking back at the days of the raging fire, China PV not only has to thank the management for launching the domestic application market, but also to help them in a timely manner; it is even more unforgettable that the upstream polysilicon industry is the first to launch a "self-defense counterattack" and finally reach a "China-EU" The strategy of “price commitment†is used for production.
But all this is still not enough to make China's photovoltaics sit back and relax.
Not long ago, "Western Valentine's Day" (February 14, 2014), for the first time in November 2011, implemented a "double-reverse" on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells imported from China, and almost cut off China's direct export to the United States. After the channel of the product, the United States once again launched a wider range and firepower, targeting the "double-reverse" attack of all China's crystalline silicon photovoltaic products exported to the United States... Sure enough, China's photovoltaics will not be peaceful in 2014.
In addition to the "double anti-", at the beginning of the new year, the latest polysilicon import and export data has also brought new troubles to China's photovoltaics.
The statistics of the silicon industry branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association just issued an alarm. At the end of last year, China imposed anti-dumping on imported polysilicon products from the United States and South Korea (the "self-defense counterattack" mentioned above), in January 2014, China. The total import volume of polysilicon is still high, even 11.1% higher than the monthly average of 2013.
Not only that, in the 7471 tons of polysilicon imported from China in January, 4145 tons were imported by means of processing trade (processing methods such as processing, processing, etc.), exceeding the general trade import method (excluding "double" Anti-"4% tariffs are required", accounting for 55.5% of the total imports, which is uncharacteristically higher than the average of 50% before the "double-reverse".
If we use "magnanimous mass" to interpret China's import method of processing trade and leave this semi-masked door for overseas polysilicon manufacturers, then it has not been able to exchange for a "civilian pictorial" of a group of people such as the United States. When the United States arbitrarily launched a second "double opposition", it all seemed so unequally.
US polysilicon "does not look back"
In fact, not equal to this is not the case.
From the end of 2011 to the beginning of 2012, after SolarWorld, after a so-called investigation and preliminary ruling, the United States finally decided to impose an anti-dumping tariff of 18.32% to 249.96% on crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells imported from China, and 14.78% to 15.97%. Countervailing duties. Since then, this "double-reverse" measure has been running through 2013.
No one will be willing to pay more than 30% of the cost, but they are not willing to give up the United States, which is the world's second largest PV application market.
In desperation, China PV chose to build factories overseas to produce polysilicon batteries and components, and then export to the United States to avoid "double-reverse" tariffs. Another more ready-made approach is: "Imported polysilicon batteries from Taiwan, and then processed into components for export to the United States." An industry insider who did not want to be named revealed to the "Securities Daily" reporter, "With this saves Relatively low-cost methods, almost no one will go overseas to build factories."
In 2013, the 2.5GW crystalline silicon photovoltaic module produced in China was only through such a road full of thorns, and finally entered the US market with difficulty.
According to the 2013 import and export data of polysilicon products published by the Securities Daily reporter through public information: Last year, China imported 22,313 tons of polysilicon from the United States, of which 10,834.12 tons of polysilicon imported by processing trade (recycling according to regulations).
On this basis, "Although China has also exported 2.5 GW of crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules to the United States, the production of these components has barely consumed China's imports of polysilicon from the United States," said the industry insiders.
As mentioned above, in the "double-reverse", in 2013, almost 2.5GW of China's exports to the United States were produced using Taiwan's crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells.
But the industry knows that there is no polysilicon in Taiwan, which means that the polysilicon used by Taiwan in China to produce these batteries is either obtained from the mainland or imported from overseas.
The data shows that in 2013, the total amount of polysilicon products (polysilicon, silicon ingots, silicon wafers, etc.) exported by China to various countries and regions was only 40.9 tons. Calculated by using 6 grams of polysilicon per watt of battery components, 2.5 GW of battery components requires about 15,000 tons of polysilicon. It can be seen that the raw materials for the batteries produced in Taiwan are basically not from the mainland, that is, they do not consume polysilicon imported from the United States from the United States.
So where did the polysilicon imported from the United States go? It can be speculated that most of the polysilicon imported by means of feed processing (taxable imported raw materials, finished products exported to any overseas market) is made into batteries or components and sold to other overseas markets outside the US. After all, China’s exports last year. The total amount of crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules has reached 16 GW.
The United States, which holds the flag of fair trade, is weak in its domestic crystalline silicon photovoltaic manufacturing industry. When it fails to consume more than 50,000 tons of polysilicon in five years, it has dumped the Chinese market at a price lower than the cost. The other hand refused to use China to use these polysilicon. The produced PV products are sold back to the US market.
The "culprit" that fuels this unequal trade is precisely the processing trade policy that is unique to developing countries.
Unequal trade
In China's photovoltaic industry dominated by crystalline silicon cells for more than a decade, the inequality in international trade has always existed, and it has become increasingly fierce.
Judging from the 2013 polysilicon imports and component export data provided by China Customs, China's imports of polysilicon and resale of PV products are seriously unequal.
Take the three countries of Germany, the United States and South Korea, which together account for 86.9% of China's total imports of polysilicon in 2013. These countries have huge polysilicon production capacity, but due to the decline of their own photovoltaic manufacturing industry, or almost no photovoltaic manufacturing industry, its polysilicon industry mainly relies on the Chinese market.
In 2013, China imported 26,122 tons of polysilicon from Germany, accounting for 32.4% of total imports. Although these polysilicon can be processed into 4GW battery components, due to the EU's “double-reverse†sanctions on Chinese PV products, even with the efforts of the Chinese and European governments, the “price commitment†method has been successfully settled. Only poor 753MW, less than a quarter of the normal year, the return rate is only 19%. Even if the EU's exports are counted, it is only 4.5 GW, less than one-third of the normal year. At this point, the share of China's PV in the EU market has fallen from over 80% in normal years to less than 40%.
In addition, there is almost no photovoltaic manufacturing industry in Korea, and the photovoltaic application market is very small. The polysilicon produced by it mainly depends on exports. In 2013, South Korea exported 21,631 tons of polysilicon to China, accounting for 26.8% of China's total imports. It can be processed into 3.9GW crystalline silicon battery modules. However, China's return to South Korea's PV modules is only 109MW, and the rebate rate is even less. 2.8%!
More than Germany and South Korea, the United States mentioned above exported a total of 22,313 tons of polysilicon to China in 2013, accounting for 27.7% of China's total imports, which can be processed into 3.9GW crystalline silicon battery modules. However, due to the US “double-reverse†sanctions against Chinese PV, the return rate of polysilicon processed into battery components imported into China by the United States is almost zero!
Overall, in 2013, only 34% of China's imports of more than 80,000 tons of polysilicon were imported through general trade. The other two-thirds were tax-free methods such as processing trade, calculated on the basis of 4% tariff. The tariff for this reduction has reached 243 million yuan!
Used "processing trade"
What caused these countries to turn a blind eye to China's polysilicon anti-dumping?
On July 18, 2013, about one year after the investigation of the case, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued the preliminary ruling on the anti-dumping of solar-grade polysilicon in the United States and South Korea, and determined that the dumping margin of imported polysilicon from the United States was 53.3% to 57%, imported from South Korea. The dumping margin ranges from 2.4% to 48.7%.
Just since July last year, China’s data on the import of polysilicon from overseas has also undergone subtle but significant changes.
According to the survey data provided by the Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, in August and September 2013 after the initial ruling of anti-dumping, China’s imports of polysilicon accounted for nearly 80% in the form of processing trade, including imports of polysilicon from the United States in September. According to the processing trade, the proportion is as high as 99.2%.
A PV company person told the "Securities Daily" reporter that "Before the anti-dumping investigation, the imported polysilicon in the form of processing trade is generally less than 50% of the total." Then, why did this figure rise sharply to more than 80% in August and September after the anti-dumping preliminary ruling was announced?
The mystery lies in the fact that China's imports of polysilicon from the United States and South Korea must be paid "temporary anti-dumping guarantee" from July 18, the first ruling, and the final ruling on January 21, 2014 will be officially paid, but will begin to formally pay anti-dumping duties; At the same time, "if imported by processing trade, these polysilicon products can be exempted from normal tariffs, and there is no need to pay deposits and anti-dumping duties." The PV company official admitted to the reporter.
The so-called processing trade imports, including processing of incoming materials, processing of imported materials, import and export goods in bonded area warehouses, and warehousing and re-export trade in bonded areas. At the beginning of reform and opening up, in order to increase employment opportunities and prosper the local economy, especially to promote foreign exchange earning through exports, China has created such an international trade method that can apply for exemption of tariffs, while at the same time benefiting foreign entrustment and domestic acceptance of both parties.
In short, if the materials are imported or not, as long as the “steam†produced by the imported “flour†can be exported, these “flours†will not be taxed. In the view of the above-mentioned business people, "for the import of polysilicon, as long as the 'back door' of processing trade exists, anti-dumping measures will be in vain."
It must be acknowledged that even if processing trade imports, especially in the processing of incoming materials, domestic enterprises as the recipients can only create relatively meager labor value, but today, they are still promoting China's economic growth and upgrading multi-industry manufacturing. Ability, technical level, etc. contribute strength.
"But it can only serve as a passenger in the primary stage of the Chinese market. It can no longer meet the needs of China's economic development, cannot represent China's innovation and development, and cannot occupy China's international market dominated by technological innovation. This is obviously policy making. And a good time to adjust." An industry insider told the "Securities Daily" reporter.
Today, this once-famous trade policy is being used by the skeptical speculators to process the import of polysilicon raw materials into processing trades, which is the driving force behind the apparent loss of the export of photovoltaic products.
However, it is not too late to make up for it. The market, such as the battlefield, is the wisdom of the government's decision-making departments, positioning itself to provide the most effective services for China's vast number of competitive high-tech enterprises.
People need to reflect on how China can develop from a big trading country to a trading power, and the game of the market is a game of technology, capital, and marketing. In the final analysis, it is a game between countries.
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