Abstract The "two barrels of oil" that "fly all the way" on shale gas may have to stop the pace of rapid development. The reporter learned from relevant personnel of Sinopec, including shale gas, Sinopec this year natural...
The "two barrels of oil" that "fly all the way" on shale gas may have to stop the pace of rapid development. The reporter learned from relevant personnel of Sinopec that Sinopec's sales of natural gas this year, including shale gas, were not ideal, so that the company had to limit the production of natural gas this year. PetroChina’s shale gas production this year will also be 1 billion cubic meters lower than the target.
Li Li, director of energy research at Anxun, believes that shale gas is still a strategic industry at present, and that production is slowed down due to economic benefits. China’s shale gas is going to be developed on a large scale, or it will wait until the next round. Long-lasting high oil prices can only be seen.
Sales blocked Sinopec limited production
At the end of 2014, “two barrels of oil†gave the target for shale gas in 2015: PetroChina plans to increase production from 100 million to 2.6 billion cubic meters, and Sinopec plans to increase production from 2 billion to 5 billion cubic meters. The two big brothers have a lot of gears.
But this goal is now difficult to achieve. The reporter learned from relevant personnel of Sinopec that Sinopec's overall sales of natural gas this year, including shale gas, was not satisfactory, resulting in Sinopec having to restrict the production of natural gas. However, Sinopec did not respond to the company's specific production of shale gas this year.
The plight of Sinopec on shale gas is also reflected in the announcement. Sinopec's 2015 semi-annual report showed that its natural gas production has changed from the previous high-speed growth trend, showing a year-on-year decline; the third quarter report shows that its natural gas production in the first three quarters is still slightly downward.
In fact, not only Sinopec, PetroChina's shale gas development this year is not smooth.
According to the interface news, PetroChina’s shale gas production this year is about 1.6 billion cubic meters, which is 1 billion cubic meters lower than the target at the end of last year. "When we are preparing for a big job, we have encountered a trough of global shale gas development," said Xiao Yongjun, a senior engineer at the PetroChina Southwest Oil and Gas Field Shale Gas Division.
Earlier in an oil and gas internal meeting, an expert from the Petroleum Exploration Institute told reporters that "the exploration of Sinopec and Sinopec on the shale gas project is more an action under the national strategic background, not because of low oil prices or gains. Small will stop." At present, the benefits of shale gas have been so low that “two barrels of oil†can't hold back.
According to Han Xiaoping, chief information officer of China Energy Network, even if Sinopec and Sinopec can complete the planned shale gas production this year, the sales of shale gas will be difficult to complete: “The production cost of domestic shale gas is still high, and At the same time, China's overall demand for natural gas has also fallen sharply this year. Whether it is shale gas or natural gas, sales will not be ideal."
Natural gas demand growth slows
Behind the slowdown in shale gas mining, not only is the cost of exploration high, but the deceleration of natural gas demand is also an important cause.
The development of oil and gas upstream areas requires a lot of capital, and the risks to be borne are not small – the cost of hitting a well is tens of millions of yuan. For shale gas exploration, where technology is still mature, it still exists after drilling. The possibility of not producing gas, so the cost of exploration of shale gas is still high.
He Jiangchuan, deputy general manager of PetroChina Exploration and Production Branch, told reporters that in 2014, PetroChina invested more than 10 billion yuan in the exploration and development of shale gas. As oil and gas prices fall and sell at current lower prices, PetroChina is difficult to support its cost in the exploration and production of shale gas; however, CNPC is currently seeking to reduce costs through upgrading technology and large-scale production.
In the case that the sales profit has been meager, the price of natural gas has been reduced twice this year, which undoubtedly has a significant impact on the sales of shale gas.
In addition, state subsidies for shale gas are also decreasing. At the end of April this year, the Ministry of Finance and the National Energy Administration announced that the subsidy standard for shale gas development and utilization will drop to 0.3 yuan/m3 in 2016~2018, and then drop to 0.2 yuan/m3 in 2019~2020.
The slowdown in demand for natural gas has put more pressure on domestic gas sales. China Petroleum Economics and Technology Research Institute's "2014 Domestic and Foreign Oil and Gas Industry Development Report" (hereinafter referred to as "Development Report") shows that the apparent consumption in 2014 was about 183 billion cubic meters, an increase of 8.9% over the previous year. The speed is the lowest in 10 years. The above-mentioned "Development Report" predicts that the apparent consumption of natural gas in China will reach 200 billion cubic meters in 2015, and the growth rate will continue to decline.
According to the latest industry statistics released by the National Development Commission, China's natural gas consumption in October was 14.5 billion cubic meters, an increase of 4.0%; January-October consumption was 146.5 billion cubic meters, an increase of 2.7%. Compared with the growth rate of the same period last year, the monthly consumption growth rate decreased by 4.5 percentage points, and the cumulative consumption growth rate decreased by 4.4 percentage points.
“Shale gas and natural gas are clean energy sources that are environmentally friendly. The pollution caused by coal and oil can be solved by natural gas. However, the high price of natural gas has caused downstream industries such as natural gas power generation to miss development opportunities, although natural gas now Prices have been cut, but demand growth has slowed sharply. The future development of shale gas and natural gas in China will face more pressure,†Han Xiaoping said in an interview.
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