2011 is the first year of the 12th Five-Year Plan. The quality of the building materials industry also affects the nerves of the entire economy. This is one of the characteristics of emerging economies. The following is a look forward to the direction of China's major building materials and building materials home market.
First, the growth of cement production capacity has slowed down, and the trend of price increase still exists.
The national cement production in 2010 was 1.868 billion tons, which is very similar to the 1.87 billion tons predicted by the China Building Material Distribution Association in early 2010, an increase of 15.5% year-on-year. The annual sales revenue is expected to reach 680 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and the profit will reach 54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 35%.
The overall trend of the cement industry in 2011 is good. From the production capacity point of view, in 2011 is expected to add about 90 million tons of new production capacity, elimination of backward production capacity of about 100 million tons, the total production capacity slightly lower than last year, about 225 million tons. From the demand point of view, in 2011, the “4 trillion stimulus policy†has greatly reduced the cement boosting effect, but most of its projects are still under construction, and the supporting role of cement demand is still in place, while the construction of water conservancy, high-speed railways, etc. The rise of the cement also provided certain guarantees for cement demand. In particular, the construction of 10 million sets of affordable housing launched by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will bring about 150 million tons of new cement demand. In addition, urbanization and regional development will maintain a certain growth rate in cement demand. Since the cement production and sales rate is usually stable at about 98% (which is determined by the characteristics of cement), the cement production in 2011 is expected to reach 2.14 billion tons. .
From the perspective of cement prices in 2011, as total capacity has not increased, demand is still increasing, and coal price increases are expected to continue to increase, the average price of cement will still rise, but will not exceed the price in special circumstances in November 2010 (The price caused by power cuts has skyrocketed). Industry profits will also be further improved.
Second, the growth in sales of glass is accelerating, and high-end energy-saving and electronic glass will become bright spots.
In 2010, the output of flat glass in China reached 630 million weight boxes, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, and the efficiency was the best in history. The annual sales revenue was estimated at 69 billion yuan, an increase of 32.8% over the same period of last year, and the profit exceeded 7.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13 %.
The glass industry in 2011 will also have a rapid growth. Although this year, the state will continue to increase its real estate control efforts, it will gradually increase its real estate operating rate as its efforts to strengthen market regulation and control measures, and the construction of affordable housing, urbanization, and the rise of commercial real estate will all increase. Become the basis for the rapid growth of the glass industry. In addition, energy-saving glass, photovoltaic glass, electronic touch screen glass and other high-end products will also increase the profits of the industry, the elimination of backward production capacity will only make stock glass companies develop better, rather than suppress the development of the glass industry.
Flat glass prices should rise steadily this year. If the international oil price exceeds 100 US dollars/barrel, the fuel heavy oil and natural gas used for glass production will rise sharply, and the price of glass will rise accordingly. The profits generated by energy-saving and emission reduction, especially pure heat recovery power generation, will resolve some of the factors that fuel increase. Therefore, the annual glass industry's profit will be better than last year.
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